A lot of people are looking for a simple explanation

It is possible that at least some of these risk factors, while probably minor players individually, could be more substantial when added together. But overall, experts agree that most environmental factors need to be researched further before reaching conclusions. What has been conclusively ruled out is any link between vaccines – including certain ingredients some contain – and ASD.

This is unsatisfying to many, Gross points out. “A lot of people are looking for a simple explanation, especially when autism is stigmatised, when they have been told many negative things about for maybe their own child’s disability, and they want not only an explanation but something to blame.”

The resulting vacuum has created space for simplistic ideas to spread – even those that lack evidence and have been repeatedly debunked. In the US, for example, where the current measles outbreak has claimed multiple lives, children whose older siblings have ASD are less likely to be vaccinated themselves against measles, mumps and rubella – likely due in part to the long-debunked link between autism and vaccination.

One reason it’s common to be alarmed about increasing autism diagnoses, says Gross, is that societies generally haven’t built sufficient support systems to accompany a diagnosis. A way to make an autism diagnosis less scary would be to improve the support, she says.

Rosa agrees. The real crisis, she says, is not of autism, but care and support – which she’s found lacking for Leo, who is today a 24-year-old who loves hiking and pizza. As Rosa continues seeking the best ways to support her son, researchers will continue unravelling the science of autism.

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